Kurt Alme Maintains Lead in Montana Senate Race; Bodnar Rising Fast
Current Dynamics in the Montana Senate Race
The latest poll from the Montana Free Press and the Rutgers Eagleton Center for Politics indicates a competitive landscape in the race for Montana's U.S. Senate seat. Kurt Alme, the Republican candidate, holds a notable lead over his main rival, Seth Bodnar, an independent candidate, with an 8-point gap as of early September.
Polling Details and Candidates' Support
As per the poll conducted between August 27 and September 7 with a sample size of 845 registered voters, Alme has garnered 38% support, which reflects a slight decline from his standing in earlier surveys. Meanwhile, Bodnar has seen growth, elevating his support to 30%, marking a 7-point rise since the previous spring. The poll has a margin of error of 4.2%.
Supporting details reveal that Alani Bankhead and Kyle Austin, competing in the same four-way race, are trailing significantly, with Bankhead at 16% and Austin at merely 5%. Additionally, 6% of voters expressed a preference for "someone else," while 5% would refrain from voting. Notably, a considerable portion, over one-third, of voters remain undecided.
Voter Demographics and Support Breakdown
Diving into party dynamics, Bodnar is preferred by 53% of Democratic voters, which illustrates an ongoing internal struggle as several prominent Democrats have suggested that Bankhead withdraw from the race. Former Senators, including Max Baucus and Jon Tester, along with ex-Democratic Chair Nancy Keenan, believe that the Democratic candidate is unlikely to succeed against Alme.
Independents, who represent a significant 44% of the electorate in Montana, are leaning toward Bodnar, who holds 38% support compared to Bankhead's 18%. Alme enjoys a steady 25% among these voters. Conversely, Alme has retained 78% of Tim Sheehy's supporters from the 2024 elections, with Bodnar and Austin taking 7% and 5%, respectively. Among Bodnar's backers, 37% did not participate in the last Senate race.
Age and Gender Support Variance
Alme's support spans across various demographics, particularly among older voters aged 65 and above, where he holds a commanding 51% support. Bodnar's backing remains consistent across all age groups, whereas Bankhead finds her strongest appeal within the younger demographic of 18 to 34-year-olds.
When looking at gender support, Alme has 42% of male voters and 34% of female voters, while Bodnar secures 29% among men and 31% among women. Bankhead lags with 10% support from men and 23% from women, and libertarian candidate Austin remains notably lower, with single-digit support across all demographics.
Methodology of the Poll
This polling utilized a probability-based method designed from the state's registered voter files to ensure a fair chance of selection for every voter. The results were adjusted to reflect the demographics of Montana’s electorate, maintaining a margin of error of approximately 4.3 percentage points.