GOP Mass Deportation Plan Could Cost U.S. Nearly $1 Trillion, Impacting Taxpayers

A new analysis from the conservative-leaning Cato Institute reveals that mass deportation plans in House Republicans’ bill H.R. 1, also called the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”—could cost taxpayers nearly $1 trillion more than Congress has accounted for. 

This massive price tag comes on top of what the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) already says is $168 billion in spending for immigration enforcement.

The “Big Beautiful Bill,” a budget bill backed by Trump and Republicans, passed in the House of Representatives proposing significant spending increases for immigration enforcement.. It would fund a wide range of enforcement measures, including more border security, expanded detention, and new restrictions on asylum.

According to the CBO, the bill already includes $168 billion for immigration-related agencies like ICE, CBP, and USCIS. That number also includes new legal, personnel, and infrastructure costs.

But what the CBO didn’t include, according to Cato, is the cost of actually deporting millions of people living in the U.S. without legal status.

What the CBO Left Out

David J. Bier, an immigration policy expert at the Cato Institute, says that the CBO “neglects the more significant cost of removing immigrants who would have paid more in taxes than they received in benefits.

In his estimate, “the actual cost of H.R. 1’s immigration enforcement spending is nearly $1 trillion more than the CBO estimates.”

That’s because the bill would effectively require the federal government to try to deport almost all 11 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S.—a logistical and financial task far bigger than what’s currently budgeted.

Why It Matters

Bier warns that deportation alone could make up nearly one-quarter of the bill’s total cost—and none of it is in the official numbers Congress is using to evaluate the legislation.

“When seen in the context of the overall costs of the bill, mass deportation would account for almost a quarter of the bill’s total price tag,” he writes.

The report’s warning here is clear: this bill could cost far more than Congress is telling the public.

Bottom Line

The Cato Institute’s findings suggest that the House GOP’s “Big Beautiful Bill” may be dramatically underestimating the cost of enforcing mass deportations. According to Cato, these costs won’t stay on paper—they would likely fall directly on taxpayers. With no clear offsets in the legislation, the nearly $1 trillion in additional spending would have to be covered through higher taxes, more government borrowing, or cuts elsewhere in the federal budget. Bier warns that the bill would impose hundreds of billions of dollars in new costs on taxpayers, making immigration enforcement one of the most expensive mandates in recent history.